Alden showing off the ULTIMATE Steamboat Smore

I just ran across this picture and couldn't resist showing everyone my son Alden's favorite summer creation. We have a decent sized lot and a firepit so it is not uncommon for us to have smores at night. Alden has taken this opportunity for experimentation to bring up the level of smore making to an "art". He also makes sure to include indiginous materials he saved from winter, the fluffy bumps still around from our record winter that is ;) My innovation this summer (I couldn't be the first but have never seen it before) was to use Reeses peanut butter cups in the smore. For more click back to the Steamboat Springs blog main page.

Steamboat Legend and 2008/2009 Snow Forecasts

It has been a wet fall with a lot of rain and very cold nights so far. Even though I treasure every day of fall as a skier my thoughts inevitably turn to pondering what kind of winter is approaching for Steamboat. Everyone in town has their favorite method but I tend to defer to those that have ranched the land since Steamboat's earliest days, lived intimately in those winters and have a real connection with the climate here in Steamboat. John Fetcher fits that description and he is also one of the five partners that Jim Temple led in founding the Steamboat Ski area. I have had the good fortune to see John a lot recently at dinner with a mutual friend and a couple of parties. Getting to know him better has not only increased my respect for him immensely but given me a greater understanding of our history in Steamboat Springs.

It is a pleasure to have a conversation with a man that has shaped the Yampa Valley in more ways than I could possibly mention here, hear about how many things came to be, and smile as he relates things he was a part of in a very understated humble way. He is a true Steamboat icon and a great example for us as we look forward to remember the qualities that got us here. Things we must maintain if we hope to keep this valley as special as it has been given to us by our founding fathers and mothers. BTW I have seen tons of Beaver sign every time I have fly-fished in the Elk River Valley this year, just like last summer and fall which preceded our record snow year last fall. Let's hope John is right but either way it is always fun to dream.

Excerpts from the Steamboat Pilot: "...if you’re like John Fetcher, who has lived in the Yampa Valley since 1949, you can talk with the beavers.

Local legends and old wives’ tales abound in regional weather predictions, but Fetcher said his commune with nature gives him an idea of what to expect. “I get my winter forecast from discussing the matter with the beavers that infest our ranch,” Fetcher said. “We have lot of beavers, and if they build lots of dams, we figure it’s going to be a hard winter.” So far, Fetcher’s furry forecasters predict a heavy snowfall, he said, although he admitted he doesn’t put much stock in the data.

For December to February, Larson said there is a 42 percent chance of above-normal temperatures, with a 33 percent chance it will be near normal and 25 percent chance of below-normal temperatures. The climate prediction center of the Weather Service also predicts there will be near-average snow for the year. Despite the discrepancies, there was one thing that all forecast methods agreed on: snow is coming.

For more click back to the Steamboat Springs blog main page.

Colorado Home Price trends compared to distressed states

Here is an updated graph per a reader's request. Colorado remains in much better condition than others. Volume in Denver has picked up considerably as people have become more active in buying foreclosures (lower average price than a non-distressed sale which does pull down average prices) which I believe explains some of the dip in the graph below. Colorado is the blue line in this first graph and red in the second one. The word I hear from good sources in Denver is stabilization and some improvement as inventory is going down. Original graph when this post was first done
The Steamboat Voice of Reason Blog had the audacity (many news sources find it more profitable to cover only the bad news) to post credible data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis showing the chart above that compares relative home price changes in California, Florida and Colorado. Colorado is the red line and it shows pretty clearly the differences between our market and the 5 states where the large majority of the housing crisis is playing out as represented by California and Florida. It is nice to see data that shows this so clearly from such a credible source. I am not saying we don't have issues in Colorado or the other 45 states but it is nice to see how individual states are doing.

I follow this very closely and even I was surprised by the differences between these states and how good Colorado looks after so much one sided news coverage.

If you would like to know more or talk about how this affects your situation just give me a call anytime at 970-819-6930. For more click back to the Steamboat Springs blog main page.

Alden's First Bike Ride on two wheels

Biking is just as important as skiing for most locals here in Steamboat so I thought that you would like to see Alden’s first bike ride without training wheels where he started by himself. It took him less than 5 minutes to figure it out once we put him on a small bike like a friend recommended then he started on his own this time with no assistance. I can already picture mountain biking on all of the amazing trails we have around here with him and Neve. It looks like he was probably ready before this but we are happy that he did so well, he is very proud of himself and it will increase his confidence for other things. He wants to ride his bike every night when he gets home from school! Now I just need to think of what is next. This winter will bring his first season with the Steamboat Springs Winter Sports Club. Basically it is just skiing with a well matched group of kids and a coach on the mountain every Saturday afternoon but his friends that are a year older in this program already rip so it will be fun to see.

The leaves are changing here and everyone is doing well. We hope that things are good for all of you. For more click back to the Steamboat Springs blog main page.

Steamboat Springs Insider's Guide - Skiing basics

I have been thinking about doing a series with some insider's tips to Steamboat so here is a start. As you can see I am already thinking winter and many of the people visiting my blog lately seem to be thinking the same thing. If you want to know something in particular feel free to get in touch, you will get an answer and I may get an idea for another Insider's Guide topic. I’ll provide a top level overview for a start but there is much much more to learn and the best way to learn is to ski Steamboat with a local :) I am often available on powder days.

Groomed runs: Steamboat has excellent groomed terrain. If you want raw speed go for Heavenly Daze right under the Gondola to See-Me towards the bottom. I love ending the day on these runs or catching the fresh cord in the morning to get my heart rate up a little. On the upper mountain I like Storm Peak Face to Cyclone for speed if Cyclone is groomed. It pays to grab the grooming report, they don’t groom Cyclone often but when they do it is sweeet and un-crowded early. If you are smarter and prefer a more measured pace I love High Noon off of the Sundown Express lift to one of the groomed O’clock runs. High Noon is wide and you can go as fast or slow as you like with plenty of room to carve big arcs. If Rolex is rolled (groomed) below Rendevous it is always worth cutting over to that side but it is very fast. The rest of the runs over there are great for a less gripping pace. The Sunshine side around to the right from Sundown is sweet for hero carves right under the Sunshine lift. It would be absolutely perfect with a little faster lift but it is sweet as is. I go there when I need to dial things in.

Bumps: Go for Rolex if it is open or most any run under the Storm Peak or Four Points lift. There are tons of other good runs on the upper mountain. Sneak into Nelson’s Run on the lower mountain if no one is training.

Trees: Steamboat has fantastic tree skiing. I can stay happy in one section of Closets or Shadows all day on a powder day. Snow accumulation tends to multiply in there and it is not uncommon to see 2-5 times the reported totals in the trees. If it has been snowing recently a 5-10 inch day can be knee to thigh deep. It tends to snow hardest after the 5 am report here so don’t be discouraged by a 3-6 inch in snow report (even 1 inch can be good) if it is still snowing and there is a bit of a breeze up top. If I tell you much more they will run me out of town but I would check out Morningside, Tomahawk and someone who rode west in wagons. If you have a nose for powder you can find it for days after a storm.

Steeps: Steamboat is not known for steep skiing but if you ride the Morningside lift to the weather station. You find plenty of goodness. It’s not Utah but it takes 2 lifts to get to and much of it is North facing so it holds good snow longer. Let me know if you have more specific questions.

For more click back to the Steamboat Springs blog main page.

More signs the Denver market is strengthening

It is good to see more news out of Denver that confirms what I am hearing from insiders down there. Lenders are cautious these days and Wells has a reputation for being careful that allowed them to sidestep the issues that so many lenders faced. so it means a lot when they make a call on a turnaround in Denver Real Estate. Jake Marsh has been pointing out the shift for several months in his newsletters so it is nice to see broader confirmation from sources like this. In Steamboat we see a lot of people up from Denver that like Steamboat's mountain, small town feel and have grown tired of the resorts along I-70 getting swamped every weekend. Increased confidence in Denver should help Steamboat continue to be a safe haven from most of the national real estate issues.

Denver Post: "Colorado's largest mortgage lender is making it easier for home buyers to borrow money. Wells Fargo Home Mortgage on Saturday upgraded the status of the Denver Metropolitan area's real-estate market from "distressed" to "stable." "The fundamentals in the Denver market are changing," said Greg Osborne, regional vice president of the mortgage company. "Inventory is being worked down, and as a result, prices are stabilizing." There were 24,648 homes on the market last month, a 20 percent drop from August 2007's 30,827 homes, according to data released last week. The improved status of the market means consumers can borrow 5 percent more than they previously could, Osborne said.

"I am hopeful that it will stimulate demand by increasing confidence in our market," he said. "We may have led the nation into the doldrums, but we're again leading out of the doldrums." Jim Theye, managing broker for Kentwood City Properties, said the move could signal that the market has hit bottom and is showing signs of improvement. "This will really help buyer confidence, and it will really help rekindle a positive market," Theye said. "Our brokerage is definitely seeing increased activity."

Lou Barnes, owner of Boulder West Financial Services, said the negative perception of Denver's market has been misplaced. Barnes points to the PMI Mortgage Insurance Co.'s risk index, which says Denver has a 1 percent chance of home prices falling. That's far better than the 35 percent chance of prices falling that PMI forecast for the region in 2003. "Despite Denver's high foreclosure count, as a matter of price decline and underwriting risk, our greatest exposure was at the moment the tech bubble blew back in 2002," Barnes said. Jerry Kaplan, vice president of capital markets for Cherry Creek Mortgage, said the Denver market has been stable since June.
"Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac removed Denver from their declining-market list several months ago," Kaplan said. "

For more click back to the Steamboat Springs blog main page.

Steamboat Mortgage update

Despite what you hear in the national news knowledgeable lenders have confidence in Steamboat. Mortgages are available to qualified borrowers at good rates. I called Wells Fargo for an update on rates and basic loan terms they are currently funding in Steamboat. They are funding their own jumbo loans and as a result have great rates. Lynn is very professional and Wells Fargo is a strong bank that has avoided any significant mortgage related issues due to responsible policies that kept them away from the risky loans. If you are interested check in with Lynn for an update. FYI, Jon

Jon -
Wells Fargo is a stable lending institution with over 150 years of history. We have mortgage money available to lend to qualified borrowers. Here are a few loan ideas for today (9-15-08). Rates change daily or more often.

Loan amount, Occupancy, Loan to Value, Appx Rate, Type of Loan, Orig fee appx, FICO credit score

$729,000, primary, 75%, 5.875%, 30 year fixed, 0.125%, 760
$729,000, 2nd home, 60%, 5.875% , 30 year fixed, 0 , 720
$1,000,000, primary, 75%, 6.875%, 30 year fixed, 0, 720 with relationship
$1,000,000, 2nd home, 75%, 6.875%, 30 year fixed, 0, 720 with relationship
Many other options are available. Banking relationship means a Wells Customer or $50k deposited for loan term. Please call and we can discuss details. Lynn W. Reiff Wells Fargo Home Mortgage 970.879.8586 800.741.1553

For more click back to the Steamboat Springs

Snow on the Flattops last night

I just came out of a meeting with a guy that was down in South Routt county this morning and he said the Flattop Mtns just south of Steamboat had a nice frosting of snow on them this morning. It cooler this fall so far than last so its time to get in the last few weeks of summer sports and prepare for winter. For more click back to the Steamboat Springs blog main page.

Wash Post: Why This Autumn is a Great Time to Buy

Interesting article from the Washington Post. I think that we are seeing increased confidence due to some of the recent moves by the Treasury and strong signs of stabilization around the country. The 5 worst markets that are driving the national issues will likely take longer to recover but places like Denver are seeing a turn. In Steamboat we are seeing people with strong interest beginning to move more decisively to take advantage of the increased selection. YTD our dollar volume is still equal to 2006 which was a record year that was up over 30% but we are behind 2007 when things went crazy.

In Steamboat we generally are late to follow national downturns and among the first to come back. In most investments time is more important than the exact timing and I am seeing savvy people around town moving on quality properties. Give me a call if you would like a deeper understanding of what is going on here in Steamboat.

Why This Autumn is a Great Time to Buy
Washington Post 9/12/08

This fall could be a particularly great time for first-time or buyers long out of the market to jump in, say a variety of real estate professionals.

Here are the reasons why:
* Prices are probably as low as they are going to go as the market stabilizes thanks to the government takeover of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.
* Interest rates are likely to decline as Freddie and Fannie get government help.
* The Federal Housing Administration recently boosted its loan limits to $729,750 in expensive areas. It's going to take some of that back come Jan. 1, when the loan limit will shrink to $625,500.

Also in today's Washington Post: Mortgage Rates Drop Below 6%
For the first time since early spring, mortgage rates have fallen below the 6-percent threshold. Freddie Mac reports that 30-year fixed loans came in at an average of 5.93 percent this week, down from 6.35 percent a week ago and 6.31 percent at the same time last year. "Consumers see a five in front of mortgages, and they get excited," says Keith Gumbinger, a vice president at research firm HSH Associates.

For more click back to the Steamboat Springs blog main page.

Frontier Steamboat Springs Update

Steamboat's Vice President of Marketing Rob Perlman just said that United has slashed their fares to as low as $300 in response. We will see where it settles out but as I said below this should be good for airfares into Steamboat Springs. The Steamboat Pilot published a story this morning with more details. Here is my original blog post on Steamboat's new Frontiers flights
from this morning.

"Frontier will not have a contractual relationship with Steamboat Ski and Resort Corp. Other airlines have deals with the resort and the city, which collects a lodging tax to help support air service. “Frontier choosing Steam­boat on a standalone basis is terrific because it speaks to our desirability as a destination,” Wirth said.

Wirth said the presence of Frontier, a lower-cost airline, probably would put pricing pressure on other carriers. American Airlines, Continental Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Northwest Airlines and United Airlines offer nonstop flights to YVRA during ski season. That variety is positive, Wirth said.

For more click back to the Steamboat Springs blog main page.

Frontier Airlines comes to Steamboat Springs!

This announcement should be a big boost for Steamboat this winter for those whose live here full time or as much as they can. Another 200+ seats a day on a well run airline into Steamboat is a great thing. The best part is that they fly to most of Steamboat’s biggest markets where the majority of you live already (see below) so you and our loyal visitors that rent will have more options to come here.

Increased supply of seats should also help fares overall but will it make Steamboat more crowded? Christmas, President’s day and Spring break we are pretty much at capacity already and the mountain / URA has plans to improve lifts and other facilities over the next few years along with several new restaurants coming on line so that should be ok. On other weeks 700-1200 people shouldn’t feel much that much different at around 5-7% of available beds if you consider the mix of owners and rentals that will use these flights. We will see how it works out but it doesn’t appear to be too much and will provide a cushion if we lose other service due to current airline financial weakness.

I was curious where the fares would come in so I pulled a few Saturday to Saturday fares: from Houston over Christmas week is currently $655 and Spring break during the 3rd week of March is $455, the 3rd week of February is the same. Continental from Houston over Christmas starts at $718 per person and $408 over Spring break. Initial pricing is not a boon but more supply and airline diversity is very good and should moderate fares over time. It should also make the better fares available a bit longer since there are more seats to sell. If you want to check from where you live just click this link: www.frontierairlines.com or scroll down for the cities this brings us better access to.

Steamboat Springs (HDN) to and from:
Akron/Canton, Houston, Portland, Albuquerque, Indianapolis, Rapid City, Atlanta, Kansas City, Sacramento, Austin, Las Vegas, St. Louis, Billings, Los Angeles, San Antonio, Boise, Milwaukee, San Diego, Bozeman, Minneapolis/St. Paul, San Francisco, Chicago/Midway, Nashville, San Jose CA, Colorado Springs, New York/La Guardia, Seattle, Dallas/Ft. Worth, Oklahoma City, Spokane, Dayton, Omaha, Tampa, Detroit, Orange County, Tucson, Durango, Orlando, Washington D.C. Reagan, El Paso, Philadelphia, Wichita, & Phoenix

Check out the rest of my Steamboat Blog for other updates or just to dream about your next trip. I try to post a couple of times a week. As always if you have any questions about what is going on, the details behind something you read or you are coming out please email or give me a call to catch up.

Still avoiding a recession, Q2 numbers are revised up by 50%

Some more positive news. I don't know if it puts it to rest as they say but this is good news in my view. I am still watching a few issues but am encouraged by many factors. This is worth a read...

"Real Estate Outlook: Recession Fears Put to Rest

by Kenneth R. Harney

The latest national economic growth numbers should finally put to rest fears of a recession that could choke the real estate recovery now getting underway. Second quarter Gross Domestic Product (or GDP) came in at an upwardly-revised 3.3 percent -- far above the 1.9 percent the federal government had previously estimated.

Why should anyone interested in real estate care about GDP? Well, number one, when the economic growth rate accelerates, consumer confidence in the economy rises. That, in turn, pulls potential buyers off the sidelines and opens the door to higher housing sales, sure enough, the consumer confidence numbers for August, released last week by the Conference Board, are up by 5 points.

We're already seeing some impressive jumps in home sales in places that haven't seen positive news in two to three years -- central Florida and even some of the hardest-hit parts of California. According to a new report from the real estate tracking firm, DataQuick, sales in southern California jumped 16.7 percent in July over June, and were 14 percent above the pace of July the year before."

For more click back to the Steamboat Springs blog main page.

Denver Real Estate Market gains momentum

Here is more good news in Denver's real estate market from I company that is part of a Luxury Real Estate Group that I am part of, LuxuryRealEstate.com. It is composed of top brokers around the country that get together to share ideas and operate on a different level than our competition. Many people don't know that the vast majority of the country's foreclosures and thus most challenged markets are in 5 states and Colorado is NOT one of them. I have a long time friend that actively buys foreclosures in Denver and he told me last night that he doesn't see it lasting long as it is getting difficult to find good deals there due to increasing demand. He buys homes, does paint, carpet and a new lawn then sells them in 2-4 days from listing. I have another friend in Boulder whose business is up 47% YTD over a good year last year.

"Metro Denver’s real estate outlook continues to gain momentum, according to executives with The Kentwood Company. Others around the country agree. CNBC recently identified Denver as one of the top cities in the country to keep an eye on for continued strength. In addition, the most current S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index highlighted Denver for its positive real estate market. The general consensus is that the Denver market has already reached bottom and is expected to improve.

Roger Campbell, President of The Kentwood Company.“Denver continues to lower its overall monthly supply of homes in inventory, according to the local MLS,” says Roger R. Campbell, President of The Kentwood Company. “This ‘absorption rate’ for the month of July shows a reduction of 16.2 percent to 4.8 months supply of single-family residences and a reduction of 13.6 percent to 6.2 months supply of condominiums over 2007.

According to Kentwood, Denver and Colorado continue to show improvement for employment and a positive net migration of people moving into the state. As well, the unemployment rate continues to fare better than other states and the overall national average. The quality of life, performing arts, transportation and climate will continue to attract individuals, families and corporations to the majestic mountain state, appropriately deemed “Colorful Colorado.”

If you have any questions about the housing market beyond the headlines or real estate in Steamboat just give me a call anytime. My cell is 970-819-6930. For more click back to the Steamboat Springs blog main page.

Mae Mac Bailout drops rates significantly

The Federal Government has effectively guaranteed bonds issued by Freddie Mac and Fannie may by taking the agencies private on Saturday. This made their debt essentially risk free which translates in to lower Mortgage costs. A quick update from, Josh Kagan, a great mortgage broker in town.

"The government announced bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had huge impact on conforming rates today including jumbo-conforming rates (up to $675,000 in Routt County). Conforming 30 yr fixed rates fell to 5.5% today and jumbo conforming rates to as low as 5.625%.

Whether you (or your friends and clients) are looking to purchase a new home at a relative bargain, refinance from an ARM to a fixed rate loan, or consolidate debt the current rates present significant opportunities. Please call or email if you would like any additional information."

For more click back to the Steamboat Springs blog main page.

Steamboat Base area improvements update

I got a question from a client about the status of projects and the public improvements at the base area so I thought I would share my response with you. In regards to base area improvements the public URA funded improvements are progressing and I just got chosen to be on the URAAC committee that manages what gets designed and built for the city. Intrawest has made the first round of on mountain regrading and new lifts at the base. Private project wise One Steamboat Place next to the gondola is doing their steelwork, Edgemont just up the hill below Bearclaw has broken ground and released the contract to build, Ski Time Square is being demolished as we speak but it will be at least a year before that starts due to planning time frames. Some things may go a little slower but not yet. Edgemont starting is a very good sign and a strong vote of confidence in Steamboat given the national lending environment.

I am always happy to answer questions or give you an update so call me at 970-819-6930 if you are curious about progress or the details. For more click back to the Steamboat Springs blog main page.

Great Steamboat Sunset from my friend Eric

Skier & photographer extraordinaire Eric R., who splits his time between Steamboat and Fort Collins, sent me this picture of a sunset from Labor Day weekend. Eric is a good guy who rents his 3 bedroom Steamboat condo VRBO direct if you ever need a reasonable place to stay when your are in Steamboat chasing powder or rolling our fantastic singletrack mountain bike trails. For more click back to the Steamboat Springs blog main page.

Steamboat Vacation Home Tax Tips

Here is some top level tax info from the Financial Insider on how owning vacation property can be a benefit come tax time in a few common scenarios. I work with a lot of people looking to buy in Steamboat Springs that want to know more about the tax implications of vacation property. I am happy to give them top level info and ideas on their options but always recommend they talk to their tax professionals for the details and what is best for their tax situation. I am knowledgeable but I don't read the IRS codes and you need someone that lives them.

From the article: "If a mountain getaway (In Steamboat Springs) or an ocean view has become your American dream, then perhaps you should know that a vacation home can offer some federal tax savings that may help pay for your hideaway. The tax laws differ depending on whether you use the home solely for enjoyment or mix business with pleasure by renting the property part-time.

As long as the combined debt secured by the vacation home and your principle residence does not exceed $1 million, you can deduct all of the interest paid on a mortgage used to buy a second home. The advantage is restricted to two homes. If you purchase a third, interest on that mortgage is not deductible. However, no matter how many homes you have, you may be able to deduct all the property tax you pay.

One break enjoyed by homeowners- the right to immediately deduct points paid on a mortgage- applies only to a principal residence. Points paid on a loan for a vacation home must be deducted gradually as you pay off the mortgage.

Personal Residence
Your vacation home counts as a personal residence even if you rent it for up to 14 days a year. In that case, you get to retain the rent tax free and don’t jeopardize your mortgage interest and tax deductions. However, you may not deduct any rental-related expenses. If you rent out the house on a continual basis, things may become more complicated. Different rules apply depending on the breakdown between personal and rental use.

First, if you buy primarily for pleasure but rent for 15 days or more, the rent you receive is taxable. Because the house is still considered a personal residence, you get to deduct all the interest and property tax. You may also be able to deduct other rental-related expenses, including the cost of utilities, repairs and insurance attributable to the time the house is rented. In some cases, you might even get to deduct depreciation. When the house is considered a personal residence, rental deductions cannot exceed the amount of rental income you report. In other words, your second home cannot produce a tax loss to shelter other income. In most cases, the interest and taxes assigned to the rental use of the house, plus the operating expenses, more than offset rental income, limiting your ability to write off depreciation.

Rental Property
Now consider your tax situation if you buy a property primarily as an investment and limit your personal use of the property to 14 days a year (or 10% of the number of rental days if that allows you more than 14). Because the house is a rental property in the eyes of the Internal Revenue Service, your deductions can exceed the amount of rental income you receive.

If your rental income does not cover the cost of renting the house, you may be able to claim a taxable loss. Rental losses are classified as passive and can be deducted only against passive income such as another rental property that realizes a gain. If you do not have a passive income to shelter, the losses have no immediate value (unused losses can be used in future years when you have passive income). There’s an exception to this rule, however, that permits taxpayers with adjusted gross income (AGI) under $100,000 to deduct up to $25,000 of passive losses against other kinds of income including salaries. To qualify, you have to actively manage the property. The $25,000 allowance is gradually phased out as AGI rises between $100,000 and $150.000.

When your vacation home is considered a rental property, the mortgage interest attributable to the time the premises are rented is a business deduction. The rest, though, cannot be deducted as home mortgage interests since the house doesn’t qualify as a personal residence.
The tax laws discussed here also apply to homes other than houses, such as apartments, condominiums, mobile homes or boats with basic living accommodations. Generally, these include a sleeping space, bathroom and cooking facilities. For more information, contact your tax professional. " For more click back to the Steamboat Springs blog main page.