Winter makes it's third run on Steamboat

It snowed some this afternoon on top of a little that was left from this weekend. Afterward there was good coverage up top and snow most of the way down. It started snowing again around 1130pm tonight and there was about 1 inch on my deck. I hope that you are ready to ski because mother nature seems to be telling us it going to be another good winter and there are only 35 days left until ski season!!! For more click back to the Steamboat Springs blog main page.

Opening day for Ski Season in Colorado

My 5 yr old son Alden and I decided that we couldn't resist the chance to bag opening day at two resorts in one day today. A friend hooked us up with lift tickets to make it practical. My favorite ski shop in town Steamboat Ski and Bike Kare set Alden up with a great pair of skis and Mike Parra, one of the owners, did a fantastic hand tune for Alden to give him a fast start on the season. Mike recommend he go up to 100cm skis and they were perfect. Alden is skiing pretty fast for his first day out. I won’t be able to keep up with him for long. A few little tweaks and he will rip.

We skied A-Basin and then Loveland today for their opening day. The weather was absolutely gorgeous and the snow was very good with only a few hard spots.A-Basin was pretty crowded with long lift lines but Loveland was wide open with a perfect run that had a steeper pitch for Alden to find his carve on. Alden must have been the only little guy there because we got interviewed by the Rocky Mountain News soon after arriving and then the Denver Post a few minutes later. We had a great day and I couldn't help but picture many more with him and my 2 yr old daughter Neve on Mt Werner in Steamboat this season. We have already been in training for several week watching ski movies to inspire us for the coming season.

Here is a video of Alden skiing at Loveland - The wind noise is all our speed as it was calm today. Smooth sailing on opening day for Colorado skiing

Smooth sailing on opening day for Colorado skiing
The Rocky, Updated October 15, 2008 at 12:21 p.m. Lifts opened today at Arapahoe Basin and Loveland Ski Area. The Rocky's Julie Poppen blogged live.Alden Wade is only 5 but he's been skiing for four years. Yep, you got that right. But he's from Steamboat Springs, after all. And let's just say his dad, Realtor Jon Wade, wants to make sure he has a partner in crime. So, Alden got an unexpected day off from the ABCs and 1-2-3s of kindergarten. "I got to skip school," said Alden, as he munched pizza in anticipation of getting a few runs in at A-Basin before the two drove to Loveland. "You've got to teach kids right from the start," dad said. Steamboat, after all, doesn't open until around Thanksgiving. This was Alden's first opening day experience - outside of Steamboat. He started out skiing by hanging on to a bar and getting down the slopes with his dad.

The Denver Post used this picture and some text that shows if you mouse over the picture: Click here to see Alden. For more of my musings and adventures click back to the Steamboat Springs blog main page.

Colorado's 2008/2009 Ski Season Kicks off on Wednesday

A-Basin just notified my friend at Colorado Ski Country USA and sent this picture minutes ago. They will be opening on Wednesday October 15th. It's not Steamboat but we do have about 6 inches on top and the news is sure to warm any hard core skier's heart. It will do more than warm Loveland's heart , A-basin's annual rival for opening honors but I wouldn't count them out yet as they are at the same elevation. It's just a matter of if they are prepared. It has been plenty cold at night up there to make a lot of snow so it may be surprisingly good. Props to A-Basin for kicking the season off.

As for Steamboat the mountain plans to open on Wednesday November 26th for the traditional day before Thanksgiving for Steamboat Winter Sports Club Scholarship day. Lift tickets are usually $10-20 depending on snow and all proceeds go to fund the Winter Sports Club's athlete's.

While we don't open as early as the front range resorts opening days have been some of my most memorable powder days in Steamboat. There is often 3 feet of powder in the trees and upper runs that pays incredible rewards to those willing to brave early season stump, rock and trees hazards (these are not usually a big deal if you just watch where you are going but don't tell anyone that :)

For more click back to the Steamboat Springs blog main page.

How does the economy affect Ski Vacations?

I thought you might like to see this article from the National Ski Area Association on the impact of a poor economy on skier visits. If the snow is good the skiers still come. Accuweater.com is forecasting a good year for the Northern Rockies so we will look forward to seeing all of you in Steamboat this winter :) Keep up your snow dances. Fares are very good into Steamboat this winter so don't leave us spoiled locals alone to ski it all for ourselves... we will get lonely eventually.

NSAA OUTLINES POTENTIAL BUSINESS IMPACTS OF ECONOMY, SNOWFALL
SAM Magazine—Lakewood, Colo., Oct. 9, 2008—A special NSAA report prepared by RRC Associates concludes that snowfall will be a greater indicator of visits this coming season than the economy. The report is based on an analysis of visits, snowfall, economic conditions, and consumer confidence over the past 30 years.

RRC outlines two different scenarios for the coming season. In the first, the economy and consumer confidence are weak, but snow is plentiful and consistent throughout the season. In this case, snow quality, temperatures, and timing of snowfall will determine area visits. The clearest example of this is from 1981-82, when the economy was in recession but good snowfall led to a rebound in visits from the previous poor season—from 39.7 to 50.7 million visits.

If the economy and consumer confidence are weak and snowfall is erratic, however (the second scenario), poor snow and a weak economy can combine to reduce visits dramatically. Such was the case in both 1980-81 and 1990-91, the two years with the lowest visitation over the study period (39.7 and 46.7 million visits respectively). The report concludes that if snow is good, even a significant economic downturn will likely have only a “moderate” impact on visits.

For more click back to the Steamboat Springs blog main page.

Abundant snow is forecast for the Northern Rockies this winter

Accuweather.com is predicting another great snow year for the coming winter, just not a big as last year. This is great news for us Powderhounds here in Steamboat. I have a policy of never complaining about snow since I wish so hard for a great ski season every year but I have to admit I need a few more weeks of the perfect fall weather we are having this year to be ready for the transition to winter. I has been gorgeous lately, sunny and 70's during the day showing off the fall colors with nights at or below freezing . Last night 2-3 inches of water in my boat cover froze solid. Is everyone ready for another great snow year?

Excerpts from Accuweather.com's winter 2008/2009 forecast: According to Bastardi, December could be the roughest month of a colder and snowier winter that could finish with another cold spell in late January and February. Temperatures in the West will be warmer than last winter, and could be warmer than normal. Ski resort operators in the northern Rockies and the Northwest will enjoy another season of abundant snow, although snow depths will not match last winter's record-setting snowpack.

The storms that have moved through the West over the past week have brought early snow to the high country. A new storm moving through the West this weekend will add more snow while pumping cold air as far south as Southern California. The storm will move into the Northwest on Thursday. At the same time, the jet stream will plunge to the south, bringing cold air into the Desert Southwest and Southern California.

While snow this weekend spreads from the Wasatch Range in Utah to southern Montana, strong winds wrapping around the bottom of the storm will blast across Southern California, Arizona, Nevada and New Mexico. Heavy snow is possible into the weekend in the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. For more click back to the Steamboat Springs blog main page.

Steamboat's First Snow on Mount Werner for 2008/2009 Season

The Steamboat Ski area received our first official snow of the season last night. We had a record winter of nearly 500 inches last season followed by about 170 inches after closing, a relatively short but amazing summer, a beautiful fall and now our first snow on Mount Werner. Before this we have had 2-3 snows in the area on the Zirkels and Flattops since August. The first snow on Mount Werner is our official wake-up call to get in our last month or so of summer / fall activities, start getting in shape, tuning up the snow blower and start more frequent day dreaming about the powder we will ski this winter.

There are now 51 days until opening day and while I want to enjoy every fall day I can't help but dream myself. I know I am not alone because I get several calls a week from friends and readers asking if it has snowed yet, telling me how psyched they are for ski season and planning everything from trips to new gear to make the most of the season. As you might imagine I don't mind getting those calls one bit and my voice perks up as soon as I know I have received one. Below is a video produced by the Steamboat Ski area summarizing our record breaking 2007/2008 ski season here in Steamboat that I thought might help you get in the mood for this season. Start planning your season now if you haven't already. Airfares on all of the airlines are great this season since Frontier has come to town so take advantage and plan an extra trip or two.

For more click back to the Steamboat Springs blog main page.

Vast New Ski area progressing (from 1958)

Here is an excerpt from 1958 that I wanted to share. I am lucky to know Jim Temple and John Fetcher two of the key group that founded what is now the Steamboat Ski area. The more I learn the more impressed I have become with the vision and persistence it took to make their dreams a reality. Here we are looking forward to ski season and 50 years ago they were looking forward to the first ski season on Storm Mountain.

Steamboat Springs Oct 1958— After three months of carefully supervised work, 4 miles of ski runs have been cleared for the first portion of the mighty Storm Mountain ski development, which is expected to become the top ski area in the nation. Officials of Storm Mountain expect to start construction of their first modern double chairlift in May, opening the 1,100 vertical feet of the initial ski area to visiting tourists who want a breathtaking view of the Yampa Valley by July 1959. Jim Temple, Storm Mountain president, said the area will be open to the public this winter for test runs down the many ski trails. Buddy Werner, one of the world’s greatest skiers, has been here through the summer to give his advice and suggestions gathered from his wide experience as an Olympic skier. For the full article in the Steamboat Pilot click here For more click back to the Steamboat Springs blog main page.

Local Lending situation update

Not a week passes that I have someone tell me about how they have read you just get a loan. These are all intelligent people that have come to this conclusion and it is no mystery why they think this given the simplistic and often dramatic headlines. I follow this closely because it is central to the health of our market and the advice my clients seek.

Here is the scoop. In talking with local lenders capable clients with good credit who can disclose income and bring 10-30% down depending on the property type are being issued loans everyday. It is not as simple as last year just more like 3-4 years ago which is just fine. One place it will be difficult is through independent mortgage brokers because the banks are keeping their mortgage originations in house. Locally Wells Fargo, Alpine Bank, Yampa Valley Bank and likely some others are actively approving then closing mortgages on Steamboat Condos, Town Homes and Single Family homes. Give me a call or send an email for my recommendations on the best mortgage lenders in town or anything else for that matter especially if it involves skiing or having fun in my favorite town of Steamboat Springs. For more click back to the Steamboat Springs blog main page.

Why the Mark to Market Changes will help stabilize the national market

I thought I would share this article I found on Mark to Market and how it is driving much of the current crisis. The current mark to market rules were added to increase the accuracy of financial statements but have become a real problem that is somewhat artificially squeezing banks out of business because tehy are forced to value assets on their books at the last sale instead of the value based on their expected payouts. As in all things there is a grey area since there is room for the unscupulous to manipulate things to hide problems but I think that the appropriate balance can be found to reduce the current domino effect we are seeing and allow assets to be held at reasonable values until there is a more normal balance of buyers and sellers. That balance will be helped in great parts by having banks that don't need to sell something today at a fire sale price that goes on to trigger additional sales by other banks and so on I have been describing this situtation to partners and clients a lot recently so I was happy to see it in a well written informative piece.

I believe in having a deep understanding of both our local market and the national real estate and credit markets that come to play in the decisions my clients are making so if you would like to discuss what is going on in more depth or work with someone who has the depth to advise you thoughtfully feel free to give me a call on my cell phone anytime at 970-819-6930. I will listen to your goals and thoughts then give you an honest picture of the things you need to consider to make a great decision.

In Steamboat we are fortunate to have a much more stable market that has either maintained values or increased in most segments and has a whole since we don't have the two key things that drove the 80% of the problems located in 5 key states. They would be risky loans and tremendous over-supply. We are also fortunate to have well over 95% of buyers that do not need to sell and very little foreclosure activity.

The article: "There are a lot of rumors about what is happening in the financial markets. This should give you some insight on one of the factors. Whatever the political posturing regarding the current rescue plan, a plan needs to be passed. Credit markets are frozen and banks are going bust every day. This is not totally because of "toxic" mortgages. This has a lot to do with FAS 157, also known as "mark to market". This is only one piece, but is important to understand.

Each day lenders must mark their assets to the marketplace. The increase or decrease in the value of these assets is offset in capital. If values increase, capital increases, and if values decrease, capital is decreased. It's like you having to appraise your home everyday. If your neighbor was under duress because they got very ill, divorced, or lost their job and was forced to sell their home quickly they may have to sell it inexpensively. Let’s assume that with a normal sales process it was worth $500,000 and they sold it for $400,000. Now, does that mean your house is worth that $400,000? Clearly not. Why? Because you are not under duress. You have the time to sell your home and get a more normal price, which more accurately reflects true market conditions. (Think of the price you get at a pawn shop versus selling the item on an open market.) But "mark to market" does not allow for valuing at true market conditions, which creates a vicious cycle.

Why is this so bad? Most Financial Institutions are required to maintain certain amounts of capital relative to their assets (primarily loans and investments). As lenders mark down their assets thru capital, the ratio of capital to assets decreases with no change to the amount of assets they have on their balance sheet. For example, say a bank has $1 million in capital and they have $15 million in assets outstanding. Their ratio is an acceptable 15 to 1. But should they take a paper write down of $500,000 due to mark to market requirements, their ratio suddenly changes to 30 to 1. This is because their capital is now only $500,000 after taking the paper loss, while their loans outstanding are the same $15 million. And at 30 to 1 this bank is viewed as risky. So the stock price starts to get hit, it becomes harder to borrow, and most importantly harder to make money. The bank is then forced to sell some of its loans or investments to reduce its ratio...at below “true” market prices. Yet really, nothing has changed at the bank. And this makes the vicious cycle continue.

This is not easy to understand for the general public. In fact most politicians don't get this either. That's why it is a difficult yet critical bill for them to vote on. Once this is done it will take some time but the markets will stabilize. As for the real estate and mortgage industries, it will take a bit of time but we will make it through this. Rates will remain attractive and the influx of credit availability will help the housing market gradually improve. This ultimately will be the medicine needed to improve the situation overall."
For more click back to the Steamboat Springs blog main page.