Indian Summer is back

Today was our second day of sunny & warm fall weather here in Steamboat Springs after our second significant snow this year. My friend Jeff Lampas called about going water-skiing so I couldn't turn down making some more turns on the remnants of last years epic winter along with the first pickings of this winter. That should be good luck right? As you can see the lake I ski at sits just below the mountain so it is a perfect place to pay my regards to the cycle that brings us such a great combination of seasons here in Steamboat. It just occured to me that since we are west of the continental divide and most of our storms come from the west that more of our snow stays local and comes back year after year. Just like most of our guests (or is that locals in training? :)

What will El Nino bring Steamboat?

Several people have asked me about the impact of El Nino on snow in Steamboat recently so I thought it was worth a post. Serious skiers are optimists by nature just like farmers except we plant the seeds of a bountiful powder harvest in our dreams, we study ski ratings in the heat of August, compare stories of powder days & seasons past, watch the latest ski movie releases in the fall, check our gear the first time we see a snowfalke in the air and plan out our strategy for the next season to get out on the best powder days.

Study the forecasts below carefully and start working on your best snow dance. Locals will tend to say that El Nino benefits Steamboat so make sure your are prepared.

Excerpts quoted from From the Vail Daily:
"El Nino has made a surprise appearance across the world in Indonesia, and some say that could mean a wetter winter here in our corner of the Colorado Rockies. But wait. Long-range forecasts released in August by the Western Regional Climate Center non-committally call for equal chances of above-average precipitation, below-average precipitation, or normal precipitation for Western Colorado through December.

No, it will be snowy — the Farmer’s Almanac’s, using its long-trusted “secret formula,” says it will be snowier than normal this winter.
Or not. National Weather Service’s 90-day outlooks call for higher than average precipitation in New Mexico and much of Arizona, but, alas, not Colorado, said Jim Daniels, a meteorologist with the agency’s Grand Junction office. But if El Nino does continue to strengthen during the winter, Colorado could get more moisture later in the season, Daniels said.

When it comes to long-range predictions, you might get some help from meteorologists. Or you might do better to just rely on prayers to the snow gods. The Farmer’s Almanac says winter in the Intermountain region — which includes western Colorado and parts of Wyoming, Utah, Arizona, Montana, Washington, Oregon, California, Nevada and Idaho — will be colder and snowier than normal.

Last week, the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration said El Nino is likely to develop over North America during the upcoming winter. And Daniels said there is some correlation between El Nino and snowfall in western Colorado. “It allows more storms to come across our area,” he said. The snowiest times will be mid-November, mid-January, mid- and late February and early and mid-March, the almanac says. The almanac says it uses a secret formula devised in 1792 to predict the weather. “Our results are almost always very close to our traditional claim of 80 percent,” the almanac says.

Steamboat Ski area sale could fetch $220m plus

A front page article in the Denver Post reports that Steamboat could get $220-275M based on an 8-10X multiple of earnings before interest and taxes. If a ski area is on your Christmas list, Steamboat could be perfect for you. It will be very interesting to see this unfold. The prospect of a capable buyer that will invest in Steamboat is very excited and would likely bode well for the real estate market in Steamboat Springs.

Quote from the Denver Post article:
"The documents, which were distributed to potential buyers, led one industry analyst to value Steamboat at $220 million to $275 million, although the asking price has not been disclosed...Park City, Utah-based American Skiing Co. put the north-central Colorado resort on the block in July...Steamboat drew 1.047 million skiers last winter and generated $74.2 million in revenue in fiscal 2006, up 12.3 percent from 2005...Analyst Will Marks of JMP Securities in San Francisco based his value estimate on a multiplier of 8 to 10 times Steamboat's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA, a measure of cash flow. According to the document prepared by Bear Stearns & Co., Steamboat's EBITDA was $27.5 million for fiscal 2006. "Based on today's market conditions and valuations for various real estate and related assets, I think that's a fair multiple," Marks said. "It's impressive that (Steamboat's EBITDA) is that high."...The last major U.S. ski resort to sell was Mammoth Mountain Ski Area in California, which was purchased last fall by Starwood Capital Group for $365 million, or approximately 11 times its EBITDA... Included in the sale are 245 acres of property that Steamboat owns, licenses or leases, along with an additional 3,498 acres of mountain terrain that falls under a long-term special use permit from the U.S. Forest Service...Steamboat has identified six parcels of its base area land that are available."
See the full article here in the Denver Post.

One Steamboat Place

The Timbers company is launching their marketing for One Steamboat Place this week for the 38 whole ownership condos ranging in size from 2,500 to 5,000 square feet with an average size of around 3,000 square feet. The have not announced pricing yet but I would anticipate starting prices around $1000 a square foot. One Steamboat Place is the nicest base area development that Steamboat has seen to date. It combines a great location next to the gondola building over 1 acre of new public plaza space, gorgeous views, striking architecture extensive benefits inclduing a private club and the additional perks that comes as part of a Timbers Club development.

They expect to begin construction in the summer of 2007 and be completed about 24 months later. It may be a good opportunity for someone to lock in a very high quality luxury condo now for delivery once Steamboat's transformation is well underway while allowing them to capture the appreciation potential of their existing property until completion. It could also be good for a couple approaching retirement to lock in a luxry condo in Steamboat's highest quality base area development.

Reservations have just begun and as of this morning 4 reservations have been taken. Units will be chosen in the order reservations were taken so contact me, Jon Wade for more details, renderings and info on the changes coming to Steamboat at 970-819-6930. I am an independent Realtor and not affiliated with One Steamboat Place. I follow the market and the new projects very closely to give you the best data and insights from an independent perspective.

Steamboat Ski area sale update

Things have been heating up as the weather cools here in Steamboat. There has been considerable interest in buying the Steamboat ski area since ASC announced it was for sale. Fortress Group who just bought Intrawest is looking, Vail, The Mueller's, likely Starwood and I'm sure others that I don't know about. The current word from top people is that they have several interested parties and are optimistic a sale can be consummated buy mid-December. With ASC it's never done until the deal has closed so don't get too excited until the party in the streets when a sale is final.

A change in ski area owners can bring a significant move in the local real estate market as seen in Crested Butte, it's not something you can count on but it is worth considering as you weigh your options in Steamboat. Steamboat also has several additional changes coming online that have the potential to dramatically enhance the quality of the base area and downtown experience so give Jon a call if you would like to talk about the implications for your current property or a new one you may be considering. You can reach me @ 970-819-6930 or jon@mybrokers.com. See one of my previous posts on the Steamboat Ski area sale.

Aspen vs. Steamboat

I thought I would share an article comparing Aspen to Steamboat from a visitors point of view. Jay visited Aspen and then Steamboat back to back like he often does and responded to an article that appeared in the Aspen Times. Here a are few choice quotes:

"In Steamboat, the people are almost unfailingly friendly ... You'll encounter ranchers in Steamboat ... I'm talking about ranchers with actual cow crap and sheep crap on their actual cowboy boots ... The comment about Steamboat mountain biking ... that was a beauty. Trust me on this, Al, you can get your lungs burned and your legs fried in Steamboat on more killer trails than there are Hummers in Aspen. Next time you ask a Steamboat mountain chick for trail suggestions, don't do it in your $400 Manolos. Leave your Louis Vuitton at Dad's phat condo. Otherwise, said mountain chick might assume you're looking for a ride for, uh, pussies."

"At the end of the day, Aspen and Steamboat are Rocky Mountain jewels gracefully sitting beside their respective rivers like pearls on shimmering necklaces, fashioned from the same hand, but endowed with fascinatingly different personalities and treasures of their own. One is no less beautiful to its denizens for its lack of Hollywood glamor - and outrageous expense - than the other. I can't help but think: As much as I like Aspen, and I do like Aspen very much, I would have LOVED it back in the days when it was more like Steamboat."


The original article he is responding to does have a good section about what is good in Steamboat. For the record I think that Aspen is a gorgeous area and like the skiing there but Steamboat is much more my style. Expect a wave if our paths cross on a bike, skis or just walking.

First Tracks in Steamboat

Alden got out for his first day of the season here in Steamboat and was the second person on the mountain so far this year. It's pretty cool when your 3 year old gets his first powder day of the year in September. He had about 6-8 inches of fresh a day after the storm. There was one set of nice tracks down Heavenly Daze Saturday afternoon, kudos to that person. He had a great time making first tracks and is still talking about it, that's what really counts. Update: picked up his new Dynastars Tuesday night from Steamboat Ski and Bike Kare. They are a great shop that the locals go to with a cool down to earth staff.

More Steamboat first snow shots

Here are 3 more shots I took today to give you a feel for the snow we got here in Steamboat Springs, CO. Back to Indian summer soon.

Buffalo Pass got 1.5 feet of Snow last night and it is still snowing

I just heard from a friend that Buffalo Pass just above Steamboat Springs got 1.5 feet of fresh snow last night. That means that the ski area probably got over a foot on top. As you can see from the picture below the grass on Heavenly Daze is virtually covered which is no small feat because it was pretty tall and standing a couple of days ago. It is still snowing up there and it just started snowing nice sized flakes here at the base of the Steamboat Ski area. The forecast is for more snow tonight so I'll keep you posted. I'm trying to get up the gondola to see it for myself but it is closed due to the weather at the moment.

First Snow on Mount Werner

I woke up this morning to my son Alden yelling “DADDY IT’S a POWDER DAY!!!!” at least 5 times. For me that was one of those moments when you know you have done something right in life. This picture is from our deck I took when I got up. The gondola is running now so I am thinking about going up to see how much it snowed. There is about an inch of slush

Don’t worry if you plan to come up and see the Aspens change, if it's like any other year this will all melt soon and we will have a few more weeks of Indian summer to see the leaves change and get in more summer sports. It’s doesn’t appear that it will take many leaves off of the trees.

Fall Aspen in Steamboat Springs

Here's a shot from lunchtime today at the lake looking up towards the Sundown area (and some of my favorite tree skiing) on Mount Werner. I never get tired of the progression of colors every day as the Aspens prepare their tribute to the Snow Gods. I hope that you can get out to see all of fall colors for yourself. It's been really spectacular to see everything from the grasses, hay, cat tails and various scrub brush to the Aspens show their diverse palette colors as I've driven around the Yampa Valley and Steamboat Springs this week. It's also fun to see everyone re-doubling their efforts to get their fill of warm weather sports before the valley is filled with snow.

Fall in Steamboat Springs

Once we hit Labor Day here in Steamboat Springs it is like a big switch is thrown and it is suddenly fall. I saw a large grove of golden Aspen trees right away as I started a mountain bike ride this morning with 3 friends from Dumont Lake on Rabbit Ears Pass to the Mountain View trail up the back of the Steamboat ski area and down into town. It is a little less than 30 miles with quite a bit of up and down and a big climb up the back of Storm Peak at the end.

As we came back down Cathy's on the mountain on the left side of the Sunshine chair we went through several groves of Aspens that were starting to change. It's hard to let summer go but fall is wonderful here and winter definately has it's charms. See my earlier post on Steamboat Springs seasons.